Now that Watches & Wonders is around the corner I have the overwhelming feeling that we are all about to be underwhelmed. Just like in 2009 after the last crash when imagination and creativity were put on hold. If there is one recurring reaction in the sector is its static reaction to a downward trend. Sort of like deer in headlights. When you are about to crash better not move and pray for salvation instead. You get the idea…
Basel World 2.0
Watches & Wonders is up next and I can’t help having a Déjà vu. W&W is taking the worst of the SIHH and the worst of Basel World. It begins by insisting in celebrating the venue in a city with an infrastructure incapable of hosting an event of this magnitude. As much as it is a pleasant city without intrusive tourists, let’s face it, it isn’t of any interest other than visiting your favourite private banking branch. A city visited by its banking clientele that due to the circumstances accepted a mediocre gastronomy and grossly overpriced hotels. The only recognisable landmark worth a selfie is a water jet that rises several hundred feet up in the air. Whohooo…. Mind you, Basel has not even that to offer.
So after the conundrum of loosing Basel World and the SIHH facelift, we are all back to square one. The first voices complaining about the prices and accommodation availability are starting to be heard. Like with Basel, some already have no choice but to find lodging an hour away. Like with the SIHH, indies and smaller/humbler brands are relentlessly sneezed into a corner. Preferably as far away from the crowd as possible and making sure the wined and dined press won’t spend a minute visiting them. Well done guys.
In the spirit of “sustainability” wouldn’t it make more sense to have three smaller shows instead? One for Asia, one for Europe and one for the Americas. You could even space them apart so you could present novelties three times per year. Making sure that none from these other regions are invited to a show they don’t belong would alleviate international travel stress/cost on the wined and dined media and VIPs. Wait! You already do??? Well then just invite the regional press and clients to each specific show ONLY. Tel the others; “Don’t come, be nice and wait for your turn…”. Shouldn't be that hard?
What’s next
Many things have changed these last four years. More changes than ever since my watch collecting journey began. Collectors have been pushed aside by mainstream brands in an attempt to be replaced by a new clientele, independents are no longer a safe place and worst of all, we can’t wear many of our favourite watches in public anymore. Can it get any worse? Well yes, it can. The last unpleasant hurdle in watch collecting is your local tax authorities meticulously scrutinising luxury watches. Who buys them, who uses them, when are they sold, to whom are they sold..? It won’t take long until those will be part of owning a luxury watch.
Whilst many cheered on when watch auctions prices broke record after record, all in hopes that this would eventually reflect in the value of one’s collection. Few understood the problems this will eventually bring. Watch collecting used to be a discrete hobby until now. Today it has been put in the spotlight by star auctioneers and unscrupulous auction houses. Many applauded thinking these prices would become the new normal. Guess what? It did not. Some found out when they unsuccessfully tried to make their watches liquid. Bummer… Instead those VERY debatable prices and questionable practices will eventually awake the interest of tax authorities around the world. Why, you ask? Simple. The ability to cross a border with a watch worth well over six figures while unnoticed could eventually become an issue.
Considering that should you be caught with over 10,000$/€ cash at a border crossing will get you in big trouble. A wrist watch of ten times that value won’t. Seems to be an abnormality soon to be corrected. Note that in today’s world money transfers in that magnitude across borders require an explanation form both, the sender and receiver of the funds. Thanks to all that attention it won’t take long when we will be forced to travel with invoices or certificates of taxes paid on watches. Should not be a problem for most of us but the added scrutiny to owning/collecting watches will be just another hassle. Transactions will have to be declared and proof of ownership required when incurring in a private buy/sell. All curtesy of all those that used this medium in their favour and will by then have moved on to other methods to achieve their goals.
Who’s next
I already made the question last year, but I need to make it again this year. Who will be the first brand/group to fully embrace WOKEism in their marketing strategy? Do not forget the embarrassing sustainability pun from 2021… a notoriously pathetic attempt by the watch industry in 2021 to embrace “sustainability” and place itself in the spotlight as an unsustainable industry in need of change. Ironic is the fact that there is not a single mechanical item created by man, NOT A SINGLE ONE, more sustainable than a watch. So who will buy into the WOKE narrative in 2024? Like with sustainability, when the changes are headed by overrated incompetents (AKA, Harvard graduates), the outcome can be absolutely devastating.
Just wait for the first brand to add the terms such as “diversity” and “inclusivity” to their marketing strategy. When the message maters more than the product, the outcome might not be the one expected. Feed the crowds with a message, keep the bread. Sound familiar?
Last but not least… How long for THE communique?
It has become somewhat tradition every year before the shows to foresee Rolex’s novelties. Most are shameless clickbait by bloggers, YouTubers and the watch media. It’s most amusing how wrong all predictions are when it comes to the house of Rolex. I don’t think I recall a single prediction being right the last decade. So forgive me for not even trying. Instead what I will predict is a public note to all Rolex customers that will approximately go like this; “In a super-duper human and titanic effort, the house of Rolex has managed to catchup with demand. After many sleepless nights and 28-hour days we have successfully managed to increased our capacity to manufacture all the watches needed to meet market demand. From here on you will be able to purchase, thanks to our efforts, any Rolex you desire (except the stainless steel Daytona) at any of our authorised dealers. Bla bla bla…”. A decade ago such a communiqué would have been unthinkable. Lately Rolex has been behaving completely out of character.
It’s been an interesting ride these last four years. To many of us, a rehearsal of previous market peaks but this time with social media as fuel. A little “extra” that has certainly contributed to the bubble of HYPE and false narratives. A perfect storm that only now we are reaping the fruit from those seeds.
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Cheers!
Hello Bruce! I am afraid my content will be free and remain free for(I think)ever... 😉
Wait, you can’t carry 10k in cash ? Who knew 😂